Anfavea revises projections and expects sales growth of 10.3% in 2009

Anfavea revises projections and expects sales growth of 10.3% in 2009

São Paulo, December 4 – Consumer reaction to the reduction of IPI (federal VAT) on vehicle sales and the increased availability of credit has led the auto sector to improve its 2009 projections for the second time. Instead of the 6.4% upturn to 3 million units forecast in July, Anfavea (the vehicle manufacturers’ association) now expects growth of 10.3% over 2008, to 3.11 million units.

In its first annual estimates, published in May, the association forecast a 3.9% annual decline in domestic vehicle sales to 2.71 million units.

As for agricultural machinery, Anfavea is predicting sales of 54,000 units, 1% down on last year, versus previous estimates of 47,000.

Production is expected to reach 3.216 million units, virtually identical to 2008, instead of the 5.2% decline forecast in July. If this pans out, it will be the largest figure ever, according to Jackson Schneider, president of Anfavea, who is presenting the numbers now. At the beginning of the year, the association was predicting a slide of 11.1% to 2.86 million units.

Agricultural machinery output is expected to drop by around 22.3% to 66,000 units, an improvement over the previous estimate of 65,000, equivalent to a 23.5% downturn.

Anfavea’s export volume estimates have also improved slightly, Instead of a 40% slump over 2008 to 440,000 units, it now expects a 36% decline to 470,000 units.

Export revenue is expected to fall by 41% to US$ 8.2 billion, versus the previous estimate of a 43% downturn and US$ 7.9 billion, respectively.

(Michelly Chaves Teixeira – Ag. Estado)
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